How immigration affects the welfare state in the short and long run: Differences between social spending and policy generosity

To assess how immigration affects welfare states, studies have mainly used social expenditure as an indocator of state strength, with inconclusive results. Furthermore, the relationship between and different policy fields has been mostly overlooked, temporal dynamics often ignored. Using data on 21 OECD countries 1980–2010, this paper tests relates to (a) expenditures, (b) generosity in regard unemployment benefits public pensions. dynamic static panel models controlling for relevant structural factors there is evidence a robust significant negative association net migration spending short term, no that increases later years. Some found compensation hypothesis, i.e., positive generosity. A was also pension There thus little support burdening or undermining effect state. 为评估移民如何影响福利制度, 以往研究主要聚焦于社会开支, 未得出结论性结果。此外, 移民和不同社会政策领域之间的关系基本被忽视, 并且时间动态经常被忽略。通过使用1980–2010年间21个经合组织成员国数据, 我们检验了移民如何与 社会开支, 以及 失业救济金和公共养老金慷慨度相联系。通过使用动态和静态面板模型, 同时控制相关结构性因素, 我们发现, 净移民数量和社会开支在短期上存在稳健显著的消极关系, 并且没有证据证明移民会增加之后几年的社会开支。一些证据支持补偿假设, 即净移民数量与失业救济金慷慨度之间存在积极关系。本研究也发现净移民数量与养老金慷慨度之间存在稳健的积极关系。因此, 几乎没有证据证明存在负担效应或破坏效应。 Para evaluar cómo afecta la inmigración los estados de bienestar, estudios se han centrado principalmente en gastos sociales, con resultados concluyentes. Además, relación entre y diferentes campos política ha pasado por alto su mayoría, las dinámicas temporales menudo ignorado. Utilizando datos países OCDE 1980 2010, probamos relaciona sociales generosidad prestaciones desempleo pensiones públicas. Usando modelos dinámicos estáticos controlando factores estructurales relevantes, encontramos una asociación negativa robusta significativa migración neta el gasto corto plazo, sin evidencia que aumente años posteriores. Se encuentran algunas pruebas para hipótesis compensación, es decir, positiva del desempleo. También encontró fuerte pensiones. Por lo tanto, hay poca un efecto carga o socavamiento. Since early 1990s, recurrently framed “threat” states immigrants’ claims fraudulent burdensome host societies. Assertions like made by numerous politicians parties Europa. The belief strong are incompatible currently represented e.g., National Front1, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)2, FPÖ3 but mainstream expressed such concerns4. While claim detrimental states’ viability relatively dominant debate, less agreement can be academic literature topic. impact viability, previous focused expenditures percentage GDP, some obtain fiscal pressures, other find effect. even argue positively contributes arrangements. Less research however exists explicitly analyses policy. Researchers instead frame changes indicator change It argued decreases indicative preceding cuts (Soroka et al., 2016, 180) both indicators increased effort (Fenwick, 2019). However, I maintain paper, while might driven policy, they may increase decrease independent from retrenchment (or expansion), namely when caused more) uptake benefits. In addition, fully gauge one needs disaggregate sub-policy protection pensions, these will likely affected very differently inflows. though most recognize occurs lagged over time (Nannestad, 2007), systematic testing respectively, generosity, missing literature. This offers fill gaps focusing three strengths. first second third pensions (Scruggs 2014). all models, special focus set accounting dynamics, allowing short- medium-term relationships. By variety cumulative measures using number measures, therefore embarks add ongoing debate existing theorizes albeit at times without differentiating mechanisms underlie respective following section summarize literature, outlining affect – negatively. Second, discuss differ fields, notably Existing identifies reasons response immigration. One argument because immigrants depend assistance more than native born. On average, tend lower educational levels5 born population (OECD, 2013). Immigrants average recognized work experience, language proficiency spoken country destination, networks (Brücker 2001). face risks discrimination labor market (see Riach & Rich, 2002 review), sectors hit hardest during cyclical downturns OECD, 2013, 73–74). These disadvantages show participation rates. Foreign-born residents significantly employment rates higher their counterparts (Burgoon, 2014, 367; see Auer 2017; Diop-Christensen Pavlopoulos, 2016; Gorodzeisky Semyonov, 2017). line findings, several empirical Europe, dependence among natives (Hansen Lofstrom, 2003; Huber Oberdabernig, Jakubiak, 2020; Pedersen, 2000). European Community Household Panel, Brücker al. (2001) countries6, migrants dependent upon natives, observable characteristics education experience. addition unemployed longer, children wealthy. Consequently, receive noncontributory government services nonimmigrants. Boeri (2010, 659–60) finds about half 15 investigated, 20% rely born, pay shares total revenue. findings imply levels immigrant inflows benefit receivers destination country. As result, authors argued, expected rise (Barrett 2013; Koopmans, 2010; Razin Sadka, indeed Brady (2005) who test economic globalization 17 affluent democracies 1975 2001. Their result not model specifications. fact though. help uphold current provisions demographic change. Per capita lowest those working-age 2020), aging accompanied health, long-term care. younger (Hammar, 1985, 21; Nannestad, 2007, 524), overrepresented virtually 126). suggest due institutional barriers, would eligible (Sabates-Wheeler Feldman, 2011). able enter eventually, initial periods lived. Germany, dependency declines duration stay migrant households being equal (Fertig Schmidt, Also study Sweden results confirmed hypothesis after leave 2003). recent analysis shows macroeconomic consequences international it share workforce (d’Albis Similarly, which assessed balance showed expenditures. taxes security contributions, do 125). Germany showing unburden national budget (Bonin, cross sectional data, Soroka (2006) destination-country spending. reason lack relative population, too low “possess capacity safe destroy states.” (Geddes, 2003, 151). extent, arguments based assumptions illustrated overall burden sparse. expect Whatever actual politicization perception opinion, consequently making (Brady 2005, 944; Pierson, 1996). According power resource theory, differences attributed political strength working class (Korpi, 1983). (2016) point out, weaken long-standing coalitions workers generating “new forms differences.” If ethnic perceived stronger disparity differences, foster division class. interests momentum, become likely. Related related multicultural policies erode identities setting minority majority underlining common position Miller, 2006). Indeed, rising resulting heterogeneity slightly undermine generous states. comparative Social Survey, Mau Burkhardt (2009) correlation diversity Evidence favor two Scandinavian (for Norway, Bay 2006; Sweden, M. A. Eger, 2010). Spies Schmidt-Catran (2015) investigated cross-sectional well longitudinal effects proportion foreigners programs regional level. They confirm immigration7. exploring level effects, Eger Breznau (2017) percent foreign-born redistribution comprehensive eventually summary, challenges negatively “compensation hypothesis” demand posed (Walter, Examining survey another insecurity, occupational sector high employees (Burgoon 2012). experiment, Naumann Stoetzer (2018) only respondents incomes competition withdraw faced mirrored outcomes. Analyzing replacement EU Lipsmeyer Zhu (2011) actually benefits, however, under conditions left-party union density high8. contest ground. immigration, instead, give chauvinist9 attitudes. Due degree lobbying representation, retrenchments targeting severe politicians, rendering them opportunistic options choices (Koning, fact, rights cut back target many reforms (Sainsbury, 2012) remain Römer, Finally, important note any vary field. Finnigan (2014), undermines could easily10, remains unaffected. context Goldschmidt conditional type benefit, whether outgroups disproportionally schemes. Anti-immigrant attitudes prejudice associated lowered intervention assist unemployed, old-age sickness does appear out-group sentiment. mirrors above mentioned “burden” overall, do, reversed considered (Jakubiak, 2020). seems backs occur Disaggregating crucial avoid spurious findings. Temporal play decisive role conceptualizing relationships spending, importance acknowledged 2019; 2016). thorough differentiates long, medium, short-term takes into account long standing engages (as effect-taking) process cover long-time spans (e.g. Sabatier, 1991, 1998; Zohlnhöfer Rüb, Institutional reactions involve cumbersome processes. Migration need problematized, adequate instrument counteract challenges. legislative itself take time. difficult estimate length looking prominent examples reform Personal Responsibility Work Opportunity Act United States Hartz IV indicates initiative passing bill years go by. Overall, immediate unlikely, rather delay. case hand, conceivable. Newly arrived instantaneously claiming less) population. possible. Such associations positive, e.g. if start delay (potentially eligibility requirements residence duration) negative, counteracts Not believe lag, especially suggests run, run pressures societies 2007). Another presumes lead provisions, hence expecting 2006,2016). migration, uses pooled series including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Kingdom, States. sample chosen theoretical practical. Theoretically, industrialized income developed same exhibit variation regime size. All inflows, again, size flows varies within sample. period, limited availability. Data available until 2010. main purposes compare include available. Importantly, decades 2010 suited argument. seen expansions reductions fluctuated well. complete 12 countries, missings occurred, Southern countries. includes 550 country-years cases. assesses types state, GDP (Scruggs, 2006) other. proximate source variables, controls, Comparative Welfare Dataset measured cash noncash transfers GDP. Normalizing makes comparable countries11. Missings 13 typically 1 year missing. Only cases Norway Austria 7 9 missing, respectively. indices were constructed Scruggs (2014) (Version 2014-03) measuring decommodification type. Higher values indicate degrees index builds Esping–Andersen’s (1990) original index. combines information coverage, qualifying eligibility, production worker manufacturing represents experienced citizens, immigrants. For 14 sample, Portugal years, 1995. use focuses migration. Flows center fluctuate heterogeneity. shown necessarily foreign matters (Newman, Net difference year's births deaths. First, contemporaneous appears given year. cumulated included longer-term effects. Including lags allows out longer put differently, reaction Cumulating variable hand accommodates taken together periods. substantial period time, part migrate entry. outlined theory section, making, short-, medium-, seem fruitful. Theory clearly predict matter. widely time; clear. Based considerations, explorative strategy pursued operationalizes follows: Migrationt-1, Migrationt-2, Migrationt-3, Migrationt-4, Migrationt-5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 Cumulative 5 last theoretically warranted increasing lengths sizes decrease, 10-year analyses. measure contains bias in- outflows citizens. ensure valid proxy well, correlated flows, collected DEMIG project. database reports emigration, various sources up 161 covering 1800s 2011, disaggregating citizens whenever possible (DEMIG, 2015). self-constructed highly specific disaggregated provided (r = 0.86 r 0.79 foreigners). 50% observations, 1.4% (eight observations country_years missing). assumed random, correlate nationally conceptions definitions With kept high, reasonably expansion politics, institutions, demographics driving Lee, 2014; Stephens, drivers another, underlying factor. rule alternative explanations, control variables group summarized heading “structural pressures.” Controlling relevant, (Pontusson, 1994), term (Frieden Walter, 2017), depending anti-cyclical response. (Castles 1998) downturn. factors; controls: unemployment, force per capita, gross domestic product real purchasing parity dollars divided inflation, annual consumer price nature. Left unions advocates schemes (Allan Scruggs, 2004; Korpi Palme, 2003) open toward (Joppke, cabinet terms left seats Right five variable. Union members wage salaried employees; Voter turnout adult voted election. Third, Iversen Cusack (2000) uncertainty dislocations deindustrialization spurred electoral demands compensation, labor. Deindustrialization nonmanufacturing agricultural force. g